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Fixed Fractional Position Sizing 

 

Introduction to Fixed Fractional Position Sizing

 

The Fixed Fractional position sizing method, conceived by Ralph Vince, is an essential aspect of the FinStudio Charts module, ensuring that a trader’s risk exposure is kept in proportion to their trading capital. This method directly integrates trade risk management into the sizing of trade positions, maintaining a consistent risk profile relative to account equity.

 

Conceptual Framework
  • Equity Proportionality: The core principle of Fixed Fractional position sizing is to risk a constant fraction or percentage of the account equity on each trade. This approach keeps the risk amount proportionate to the equity level, whether it increases or decreases.
  • Risk Definition: The risk on a trade is the monetary amount that a trader stands to lose if the trade were to hit the stop-loss level. This can be based on a predetermined money management stop, the maximum historical drawdown of the trading strategy, or the average loss per trade if no stop-loss is used.

 

Introduction to the Example

Using the Fixed Fractional position sizing method can dramatically illustrate how consistent risk management coupled with a successful trading strategy can lead to exponential growth of a trading account. Let's delve into a detailed example to see how the Fixed Fractional method works in practice and the potential it has for scaling profits.

 

Example Breakdown

The table summarizing the progression of account balance using the Fixed Fractional position sizing method has been created. Here's how the account grows with each milestone of 1,000 pips gained, based on the value per pip which increases as the account balance grows:

 

Account Balance Pips Gained Value per Pip New Balance
10,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 10 USD/pip = 20,000 USD
20,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 20 USD/pip = 40,000 USD
40,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 40 USD/pip = 80,000 USD
80,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 80 USD/pip = 160,000 USD
160,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 160 USD/pip = 320,000 USD
320,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 320 USD/pip = 640,000 USD
640,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 640 USD/pip = 1,280,000 USD
1,280,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 1,280 USD/pip = 2,560,000 USD
2,560,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 2,560 USD/pip = 5,120,000 USD
5,120,000 USD + 1,000 pips @ 5,120 USD/pip = 10,240,000 USD

 

  • Starting Point
    • Initial Capital: A trader begins with an initial capital of $10,000.
    • Risk Management: The trader adopts a Fixed Fractional methodology, deciding to risk 1% of the account equity on each trade.
    • Trading Strategy: The strategy in place aims for an average gain of 10 pips per trade.
    • Trade Size: Initially, the trader chooses to trade with a value of $10 per pip, which corresponds to a prudent risk level for the starting capital.

 

  • First Growth Phase
    • Profits Accumulated: After 100 trades, each yielding an average gain of 10 pips, the trader has accumulated profits of $10,000.
    • Account Growth: With $10 per pip for the trading size, the total account balance becomes $20,000 ($10,000 initial capital + $10,000 profit).

 

  • Scaling Up
    • Trade Size Adjustment: Following the Fixed Fractional method, the trader now increases the trade size in accordance with the doubled account balance, going from trading at $10 per pip to $20 per pip.
    • Further Account Doubling: The subsequent 100 trades, still averaging 10 pips per trade but now at $20 per pip, grow the account to $40,000.

 

  • Continued Progression
    • Proportional Increase: As the trading progresses, the trader continues to adjust the trade size in line with the Fixed Fractional method, always risking 1% per trade based on the current account balance.
    • Geometric Growth Pattern: The account experiences geometric growth, with each set of 1,000 pips gained resulting in a doubling of the account balance. The progression unfolds as follows:
      • $20,000 + 1,000 pips @ $20/pip = $40,000
      • $40,000 + 1,000 pips @ $40/pip = $80,000
      • $80,000 + 1,000 pips @ $80/pip = $160,000
      • Continue this pattern until significant growth milestones are reached.

 

Compounding Effect and Risk Management

The Fixed Fractional model showcases the power of compounding - each gain increases the account size, which in turn increases the position size for subsequent trades, leading to potentially larger gains. However, it's crucial to note that this model also increases the risk in dollar terms, even though the percentage risk remains the same.

 

The Risks of Fixed Fractional Position Sizing

 

The Drawback of Exponential Growth

The Fixed Fractional position sizing model presents an attractive picture of exponential account growth, but it's essential to acknowledge the inherent risks and psychological pressures that come with increasing trade sizes. The illustration of growing an account from $10,000 to over $10,000,000 is a theoretical exercise demonstrating the potential of the method under ideal conditions. In reality, traders face several challenges:

 

  1. Increased Dollar Risk: As the account size grows, so does the absolute dollar amount risked per trade. While the risk remains a constant percentage of the account, the actual dollar value at risk becomes larger, which can lead to substantial losses during periods of drawdown.

  2. Violent Drawdowns: Financial markets are inherently volatile, and significant drawdowns can occur. A large loss on a much larger position size can quickly erode a significant portion of the account balance, potentially nullifying previous gains.

  3. Psychological Stress: Risking a consistent percentage of an ever-growing account means that traders will be dealing with increasingly larger sums of money. The psychological impact of seeing large monetary losses, even if they represent the same percentage of the account as before, can be challenging to manage.

  4. Unrealistic Expectations: The example assumes a consistent win rate without factoring in the reality of trading losses, market slippage, transaction costs, and changing market conditions. These factors can significantly affect the outcome and sustainability of the strategy.

 

Balancing Growth and Risk

The key to using the Fixed Fractional model effectively is finding a balance between growth aspirations and risk tolerance. Consider the following:

  • Capitalize on Winning Streaks Cautiously: Utilize winning streaks to grow the account but be prepared to scale back if market conditions change or if a certain level of risk becomes uncomfortable.

  • Implement Protective Measures: Use stop-loss orders and other risk management tools to protect profits and limit losses, ensuring that drawdowns don't spiral out of control.

  • Adjust Risk Percentage: Consider reducing the risk percentage as the account grows to manage the psychological and financial impact of trading with larger sums.

  • Diversification: Instead of aggressively increasing the position size, consider diversifying into different instruments or strategies to spread risk.

  • Review Strategy Regularly: Regularly review and adjust the trading strategy and position sizing method to align with current market conditions and personal risk appetite.

 

Conclusion

The Fixed Fractional model is a powerful tool, but it must be employed with a clear understanding of the risks and a solid plan to address them. It's vital for traders to not only focus on the growth potential but also to prepare for the market's uncertainties and ensure that their approach to risk management evolves with their account balance. Maintaining discipline and a realistic outlook are crucial elements of long-term trading success.

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